Donald L. Buresh, a third-year-student at John Marshall, has had one of his papers published by the American Journal of Political Science Review. The article, entitled “Why No One Knew that Hillary Clinton Would Lose the 2016 Election”, argues that a blind reliance on the use and results of predictive models led to the major pollsters never knowing that Hillary Rodham Clinton would lose the 2016 Presidential election. The thesis is that when a predictive model experiences an exogenous shock or a superseding intervening cause, the dependence on data before the shock occurred is unwarranted.
